- No 2 seed Villanova is a 4.5-point favorite over Michigan in Thursday’s Sweet 16 game
- No. 11 seed Michigan advanced to its in fifth straight Sweet Sixteen
- Read below for Michigan vs Villanova odds, analysis, and betting prediction
No. 2 seed Villanova (28-7, 18-15-2 ATS) faces No. 11 seed Michigan (19-14, 19-13 ATS) in a South Region Sweet 16 game at 7:29 pm ET, Thursday, at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.
Villanova is a 4.5-point favorite over Michigan with the total set at 135.5, the exact total for the Villanova-Ohio State game and one-point under the Michigan-Tennessee total.
Michigan vs Villanova Odds
|Michigan Wolveerines||+180||+4.5 (-105)||Over 135.5 (-110)|
|Villanova Wildcats||-225||-4.5 (-115)||Under 135.5 (-110)|
Odds from BetMGM on March 22.
The Wildcats are -225 on the moneyline, which translates into a 69.2% implied win probability. The Wolverines are +180 on the moneyline, which gives them a 35.7 % implied win probability.
Villanova is the fifth-favorite at +1200 in the NCAA Tournament champion odds. Michigan is +8000. Only Iowa State (+10000) and Saint Peter’s (+40000) have longer odds.
The winner here will move onto the face the winner of Houston vs Arizona in the Elite Eight portion of the NCAA Tournament bracket.
The Wildcats beat Michigan 79-62 in the 2018 championship game, its second national title in three seasons.
Michigan is 4-2 straight up and ATS in its last six and has covered both its tournament games. The Wolverines have not won three games in a row since mid-January, their longest winning streak in a beefy schedule ranked the seventh-most difficult in Division I by KenPom.
Michigan Puts It Together
Talent was never the issue during the Wolverines’ careening ride through the regular season. It was the collateral issues — a Covid-19 pause (for the second straight season) that to a stretch of four games in eight days two weeks ago, coach Juwan Howard’s five-game suspension for hitting a Wisconsin assistant coach — that kept the Wolverines from hitting their stride.
All Big Ten-first team center 7’1 Hunter Dickinson (18.7 points, 8.4 rebounds) and returning guard Eli Brooks (12.8 points, 3.7 rebounds,3.0 assists) are the nucleus of a team that has four double-digit scorers and has received contributions from transfer guard DeVante Jones and highly rated freshmen Caleb Houston and Diabate Moussa.
Dickinson is a very tough cover, bringing a strong inside game with an ability to step out and the the three. He had 48 points, 17 rebounds and five blocked shots in the victories over Colorado State and Tennessee while shooting 16-of-29 from the floor. He beat smaller CSU in the paint; he had thr3e threes against Tennessee.
Brooks, a fifth-year senior, had a season-high 23 points against Tennessee and has played 79 of the possible 80 minutes in the first two rounds.
Illinois went 2-2 in the NCAA tournament in Trent Frazier’s 5-year career and never made the Sweet 16.
Michigan is 12-3 in the NCAA tournament in Eli Brooks’ 5-year career (still ongoing) and never missed the Sweet 16.
At least Illini fans will always have this moment pic.twitter.com/nAGQwJpaCs
— Greg Waddell (@gwizzy12) March 20, 2022
The Wolverines were strong finishers in their first two games. They trailed Colorado State by 15 midway through the first half before recovering behind freshman point guard Frankie Collins, who had 14 points in his first career start while filling in for Jones )concussion symptoms).
Jones returned against Tennessee and played 11 minutes, when Brooks and Dickinson carried the offense. Brooks had seven points in the final 3 1/2 minutes as the Wolverines overcame a six-point deficit in the final eight minutes. Brooks had 16 points, seven rebounds and six assists against CSU.
Villanova Thrives in March
There is something comforting about Villanova basketball. Two-time Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie, Moore and the veteran group are smart, steady, sturdy and seemingly never out of control, traits that led them to three of the last four Sweet Sixteens.
The Wildcats used a 35-10 surge to put Delaware away 80-60 in the first round when Moore had 21 points, and they beat Ohio State 71-61 in a game that never seemed that close. Eric Dixon’s 3-pointer from the corner after a Gillespie assist gave them a 67-59 with 1:38 left.
Continuity has been a benchmark. Villanova is only six deep, but they all show up and all contribute. Gillespie (16.0 points, 3.4 assists) – who was a factor in the Wooden Award odds all year – and forwards Dixon and Brandon Slater have started all 35 games. Moore (15.0 points. 4.9 assists) started 34.
The Wildcats find a way. They won their last five Big East games by 2, 19 ,1, 3 and 6 points, a streak that included wins over NCAA invitees Providence, UConn and Creighton.
Chance to win the national championship, per BPI.
Texas Tech 4%
Every other team under 1%.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) March 21, 2022
Michigan vs Villanova Head-to-Head Results
The teams have met three times, twice in the regular season. They met seven months after the 2018 title game when the Wolverines got a small measure of revenge 73-46 in a Nov. 28, 2018 rematch
Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels started for Villanova in that game. Reserve Brooks had five points and three assists in 17 minutes.
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The last four Michigan games, six of the last seven and eight of the last 10 have gone over the total. Michigan is 20-13 over the total; Villanova is 17-17-1.
VIllanova has won seven in a row straight up and 12-1 straight up and 6-5-2 ATS since a 83-73 loss at Marquette on Feb. 2. Four of the Wildcats’ last five games have done over the total.
Michigan vs Villanova Prediction
Both these teams have been here before and have players who have been here before, which helps. Michigan is a tough matchup for most teams because of Dickinson’s ability to play in and out, and the Wolverines are playing as well as they have all season.
The points are too much to refuse in a game that will be decided late.
The pick: Michigan +4.5 (-110)
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