- Notre Dame is an 11-point favorite over California on Saturday, September 17th at 2:30pm ET at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, IN
- The Fighting Irish are off to an 0-2 start, while the Golden Bears are a perfect 2-0
- Read below for the Notre Dame vs California odds, analysis and a betting prediction
Fresh off back-to-back losses, including a humiliating one at home as a 20.5-point favorite, Notre Dame (0-2) hosts California (2-0) on Saturday in Week 3.
The Fighting Irish opened up as a massive 17.5-point favorite in the college football odds, but that number didn’t last long. A day later Notre Dame announced starting QB Tyler Buchner is essentially done for the year. That, plus the Irish’s underwhelming recent form, has led to some major line movement.
California vs Notre Dame Odds
|California Golden Bears||+11 (-110)||+330||O 40.5 (-110)|
|Notre Dame Fighting Irish||-11 (-110)||-410||U 40.5 (-110)|
Odds as of September 14th at Barstool Sportsbook. Get the Barstool Sportsbook promo code.
Notre Dame is currently favored by 11 points, in a contest that features a total of 40.5. Just 39% of the against the spread bets are backing the Golden Bears at the moment, but those tickets make up 50% of the ATS money wagered. Typically when the betting handle is much larger than the percentage of wagers, it’s an indication of sharp action.
Kick-off for this contest is scheduled for 2:30pm ET at Notre Dame Stadium, in Notre Dame, IN, with NBC/Peacock providing the broadcast coverage.
Notre Dame Betting Analysis
Preseason expectations were high for the Irish. So high in fact, that ESPN had them rated as the fifth best team in the nation back in mid-August.
Notre Dame started the season strong by hanging with #3 Ohio State in their opener, even taking a three-point lead into halftime. The offense stalled in the second half of that game, but public perception of them was still high enough that they opened as three-touchdown favorites last week at home versus Marshall.
Three turnovers and a 30% third down conversion rate later against the Thundering Herd and Notre Dame is now 0-2. Buchner is out with a shoulder sprain, and his replacement Drew Pyne has thrown only 39 career passes at the collegiate level.
#NotreDame coach Marcus Freeman says QB Tyler Buchner suffered a significant sprain in his AC joint (left shoulder) and will undergo surgery. Buchner is out four months, so most likely the rest of the season. Drew Pyne to start.
— Adam Rittenberg (@ESPNRittenberg) September 12, 2022
Pyne’s completed only 51% of those attempts, and he lacks the rushing prowess that Buchner has to keep defenses on their toes. Buchner ran for 62 yards and two scores on 24 attempts in the first two games of the season, while Pyne averages just half a yard per on 10 career carries.
Defensively, the Irish have done a decent job against the pass but have been eviscerated by the run. They’ve yielded just shy of 400 yards rushing through two outings, and a pair of touchdowns.
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California Golden Bears Betting Analysis
This will be Cal’s marquee out of conference game of the season. The Golden Bears are off to a 2-0 start, defeating UC-Davis by 21 points in their opener, before downing UNLV 20-14 last week.
— Cal Football (@CalFootball) September 13, 2022
Cal was forced to replace their starting QB, as well as their top rusher and receiver from a season ago, but so far the offense has shown flashes of potential. Jack Locker has completed 69% of his passes for 546 yards and 4 TD through two weeks, while freshman running back Jaydn Ott has already found the end zone three times.
Jeremiah Hunter has caught 11 balls for 157 yards and a TD, while the team is averaging 27 points per game. Defensively, they’ve yet to face a top-50 offense, but have fared well against their competition.
They’ve allowed just 13.5 points per game, while forcing three turnovers and holding enemy offenses to under 350 yards per contest.
Notre Dame vs California Pick
Let’s face it, it’s not like the Golden Bears defense should be worried about this Irish offense with its second-string quarterback. Notre Dame enters play ranked 118th in the country in scoring (15.5 ppg) and 97th in passing yards (199 ypg).
Last week they averaged 4.7 yards per play and less than 3 yards per carry versus Marshall. By the numbers, Cal’s defense ranks 33 spots higher than the Thundering Herd’s per SP+ (24th vs 57th).
— Cal Football (@CalFootball) September 11, 2022
Pyne’s seven pass attempts so far this season have yielded 14 yards, while Buchner’s injury takes Notre Dame’s number one rusher out of the equation.
Bottom line, 11 points is way too many for the Irish to be laying versus any team with a pulse. Play the Golden Bears against the spread and even consider them on the moneyline for a sprinkle.
Pick: California Golden Bears +11 (-110)
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