- Russell Wilson has been traded to the Denver Broncos, which has significantly shortened Denver’s Super Bowl 57 odds
- Denver was 22-1 to win it all prior to the deal, and now sits with a +1400 price tag
- Read below for analysis on the Broncos’ championship prospects, plus how the deal affects Seattle’s Super Bowl futures
Russell Wilson finally got his wish. After numerous rumblings over the past two off-seasons that Wilson wanted out of Seattle, the Seahawks agreed to trade him to Denver on Tuesday for a king’s ransom. Reportedly heading back to Seattle from the Broncos is stud tight end Noah Fant, QB Drew Lock, and defensive lineman Shelby Harris, as well as a slew of draft picks, including two first rounders.
The trade will go down as one of the biggest in NFL history and caused quite the shift in the NFL futures market.
Super Bowl 57 Odds
|Kansas City Chiefs||+750|
|Green Bay Packers||+1000|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1200|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1400|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2200|
|New England Patriots||+2500|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+2800|
|New Orleans Saints||+4000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+5000|
|New York Giants||+10000|
|New York Jets||+15000|
Odds as of March 8th at Caesars Sportsbook
Denver’s Super Bowl 57 odds have been shortened from +2200 to +1400, making them a top-five contender. The Seahawks’ championship price tag meanwhile, has been lengthened from +4000 to +7500, making them one of the biggest longshots on the board.
Blockbuster: After weeks of negotiations, in one of the largest trades in NFL history, the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos have agreed to terms for a deal involving Super-Bowl winning QB Russell Wilson, sources tell ESPN.
Trade is pending a physical and Wilson’s approval. pic.twitter.com/oRFDV8Ehyx
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 8, 2022
The deal cannot officially be completed until Wednesday, May 16th at 4:00 pm ET, which officially marks the start of the 2022 league year. Wilson will also need to waive his no trade-clause and pass a physical, but barring any unforeseen circumstances, he’s now the face of the Broncos.
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Denver Broncos Betting Analysis
The root of Denver’s offensive problems last season were almost exclusively the result of poor quarterback play. They ranked 23rd in points per game and 19th in passing yards per game, while Teddy Bridgewater and Lock combined to throw only 20 touchdowns.
Obviously, Wilson’s arrival immediately elevates the Broncos’ offensive ceiling, as does the hiring of Nathanial Hackett. Denver’s new head coach was a big part of Green Bay’s offensive success over the past few years, and he should implement a much more aggressive, pass-friendly system than the Broncos experienced under Vic Fangio.
Russell Wilson now will become the first quarterback to start for a team that he beat in the Super Bowl, according to ESPN Stats & Information. pic.twitter.com/y5uedOV502
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 8, 2022
That must be music to Wilson’s ears, who’s been stuck playing in an archaic offensive system in Seattle, that failed to maximize his talents as well as the talents of all-world receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Denver is now a top-three contender to win the AFC at +700, and +240 to win the AFC North. In both instances, they rank behind rival Kansas City (as well as Buffalo in the AFC odds), which is justified. The Chiefs are a more talented team top to bottom, but the addition of Wilson puts the Broncos on a near level playing field with KC, which hasn’t been the case thus far in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Oh we lit 🔥
— Jerry Jeudy⁴ (@jerryjeudy) March 8, 2022
If taking shots in the divisional odds market, I’d rather the upside and discount on the LA Chargers at +425 to come out of the AFC West, but Denver is definitely now going to be a factor.
Russell Wilson MVP Analysis
As far as Wilson’s stock in the NFL MVP odds, oddsmakers believe he has a much better chance of winning the award with the Broncos than with the Seahawks, despite an arguably weaker supporting cast. Wilson’s MVP price tag was shortened from +3000 to +1500 following the trade, making him a top-six contender.
Russell Wilson’s LAST touchdown with the Seattle #Seahawks. 🏈
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) March 8, 2022
Even though Metcalf and Lockett are a more feared wide receiver duo than Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, Wilson was never going to win an MVP playing in Seattle. The Seahawks’ offensive game plan was too conservative and run heavy.
The Pete Carroll and John Schneider era will officially live on longer than the Russell Wilson era in Seattle.
Jody Allen has picked the HC/GM combo over the best QB in #Seahawks franchise history.
— Joe Fann (@Joe_Fann) March 8, 2022
Now, armed with a more progressive head coach and quality weapons in Jeudy, Sutton, KJ Hamler, and Javonte Williams out of the backfield, Wilson can potentially finally reach his ceiling as a thrower. He has the upside for 4,500 passing yards and 40+ touchdowns, he just needs to be put in a system that can maximize his talents. At the moment, it looks like Denver could be that situation.
Seattle Seahawks Betting Analysis
Replacing Wilson won’t be easy for Seattle. He led them to their only Super Bowl victory and posted the most wins ever by a quarterback in their first 10 years in the league.
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) March 8, 2022
Getting Lock back in the deal does offer them some flexibility at the position. Lock has plenty of starting experience and if the Seahawks are about to enter a full blown rebuild mode, like this trade suggests, they shouldn’t be too interested in winning games in 2022.
The bevy of draft picks also affords them the opportunity to trade up for a QB next month at the draft, should they fall in love with one.
Seahawks now PRIMEEE candidates to trade up and grab a quarterback — Giants could be in a great spot to leverage their position.
Absolutely love that the Wilson trade benefits the Giants indirectly.
— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) March 8, 2022
It’s important to note that Metcalf is not a lock to be in Seattle next year, and rumors are already starting about Lockett’s potential departure as well.
The Seahawks Super Bowl odds have cratered accordingly, and they wouldn’t even be bettable at twice their current number given their lack of a premiere QB, and the uncertainty surrounding their two most biggest playmakers.
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